← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Mon, Mar 6, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 43% | 29% | 2.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 30% | 13% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 58% | 3.25 | value: +87% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1453.93 | 1467.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.48 | -2.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |