← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 73% | 1.50 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 14% | 6% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 247.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1601.96 | 1551.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.76 | -21.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| league points | 51.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.13 | 1.79 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |