← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 37% | 81% | 2.50 | value: +103% ⚠ |
| Penafiel win | 35% | 8% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 11% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 886.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1359.11 | 1445.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.40 | -23.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| league points | 11.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 1.08 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |