← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 50% | 58% | 1.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.30 | value: +5% |
| Academica win | 22% | 10% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1507.62 | 1448.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.07 | -9.48 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 32.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| state index | -0.09 | -0.62 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |