← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naval win | 38% | 31% | 2.37 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 33% | 23% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 46% | 3.20 | value: +46% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1443.07 | 1497.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.98 | -10.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 24.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| state index | -0.17 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |