← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 49% | 22% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 64% | 3.25 | value: +107% ⚠ |
| Est Amadora win | 23% | 14% | 4.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1462.13 | 1564.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.38 | -37.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 27.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.92 |
| state index | -0.86 | -0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |