← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 47% | 25% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 41% | 3.25 | value: +34% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 25% | 34% | 3.50 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 154.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1581.57 | 1572.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.05 | 24.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 44.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.96 |
| state index | 0.93 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |