← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 38% | 29% | 2.40 | fair |
| Leiria win | 35% | 27% | 2.60 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 45% | 3.25 | value: +45% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 879.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1445.07 | 1507.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.77 | 4.43 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 25.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.35 |
| state index | -0.79 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |