← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 48% | 43% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
| Est Amadora win | 25% | 33% | 3.80 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Est Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1549.99 | 1384.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.76 | -13.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 27.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |