← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 37% | 34% | 2.40 | fair |
| FC Porto win | 34% | 42% | 2.62 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1554.86 | 1611.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.87 | 17.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| league points | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 2.22 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |