← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 71% | 69% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | 4.50 | value: +17% |
| Maritimo win | 10% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 233.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1606.43 | 1495.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.89 | -12.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| league points | 48.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.23 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |