← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 47% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 48% | 3.30 | value: +57% ⚠ |
| Penafiel win | 26% | 8% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Penafiel | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1372.96 | 1548.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.35 | -30.28 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| league points | 11.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.77 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |