← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 42% | 33% | 2.20 | fair |
| Naval win | 30% | 42% | 3.10 | value: +29% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Naval | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1438.46 | 1552.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.27 | 8.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 21.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.86 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |