← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 45% | 36% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +16% |
| Academica win | 27% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1469.20 | 1470.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.67 | 5.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 24.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |