← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sun, Feb 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Est Amadora win | 44% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Belenenses win | 28% | 8% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 50% | 3.25 | value: +62% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Est Amadora | Belenenses |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1481.96 | 1468.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.71 | -8.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.33 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |