← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Sat, Feb 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 50% | 65% | 1.83 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.50 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 24% | 14% | 4.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitória SC | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1429.60 | 1573.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.21 | -6.96 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 20.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.95 |
| state index | -0.38 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |