← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boavista win | 57% | 49% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +14% |
| Rio Ave FC win | 16% | 17% | 6.00 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Boavista | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1566.77 | 1471.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 61.07 | -1.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.97 | -0.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |