← Primeira Liga 2005-06 · Mon, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 51% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.25 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 22% | 18% | 4.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1509.56 | 1415.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.26 | -13.26 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 27.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.03 | -0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |