← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, May 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 47% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior −0.5 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Sparta Rotterdam −0.5 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (og) | Giannino Vianello · SBV Excelsior |
| 40' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 50' | ⚽ | Arthur Zagre · SBV Excelsior |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ayoni Santos · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 54' | 🟨 | Julian Baas · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 62' | ⚽ | Noah Naujoks · SBV Excelsior |
| 71' | 🟨 | Teo Quintero · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 89' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Milan Zonneveld · Sparta Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| venue | Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel |
| coach days |
| 562.00 |
| 715.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1508.63 | 1452.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.39 | 34.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| league points | 43.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -1.10 | 0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.85 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.13 | 1.66 |