← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Dieperink
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 61% | 61% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 15% | 4.75 | fair |
| Heracles win | 19% | 24% | 5.00 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle −1 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Heracles −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 67% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 33% | 2.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ryan Thomas · PEC Zwolle |
| 31' | 🟨 | Alec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles |
| 38' | 🟨 | Djevencio van der Kust · Heracles |
| 62' | 🟨 | Sem Scheperman · Heracles |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sem Scheperman · Heracles |
| 63' | 🟥 | Sem Scheperman · Heracles |
| 68' | 🟨 | Sherel Constancio Floranus · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | IJsseldelta Stadion |
| coach days |
| 306.00 |
| 306.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1484.94 | 1360.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.11 | -38.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| league points | 34.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 9.73 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -1.52 | -2.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.77 | -1.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 2.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.10 |