← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, May 3, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 44% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
| Volendam win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen +0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Volendam +0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 60% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 40% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Precious Ugwu · Volendam |
| 8' | ⚽ | Luca Oyen · SC Heerenveen |
| 11' | 🟨 | Juninho Bacuna · Volendam |
| 40' | 🟨 | Nordin Bukala · Volendam |
| 41' | 🟨 | Joris van Overeem · SC Heerenveen |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luuk Brouwers · SC Heerenveen |
| 86' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lasse Selvåg Nordås · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 671.00 | 428.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1403.36 | 1577.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.60 | 15.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.04 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| league points | 31.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.62 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.22 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.95 |