← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 25, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 46% | 54% | 2.05 | value: +10% |
| NAC Breda win | 30% | 24% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| NAC Breda +0.5 | 55% | 1.73 |
| AFC Ajax +0.5 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand