← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 49% | 52% | 1.95 | fair |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −0.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| NEC −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 68% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 32% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 40' | 🟨 | Luciano Valente · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 51' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 53' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tjaronn Chery · NEC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Jakub Moder · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oussama Targhalline · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Danilo · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days |
| 466.00 |
| 435.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 4.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1651.44 | 1680.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.09 | -26.37 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.60 | 50.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| league points | 53.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 7.73 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.19 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.76 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.70 |