← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. van den Kerkhof
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 61% | 60% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax +1 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Heracles +1 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 65% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand