← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 04:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 50% | 53% | 1.90 | fair |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PSV +0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.5 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 67% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 33% | 3.40 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.