← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 59% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Telstar 1963 win | 16% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar 1963 −1 | 51% | 1.85 |
| FC Utrecht −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 59% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Matisse Didden · FC Utrecht |
| 38' | 🟨 | Souffian El Karouani · FC Utrecht |
| 48' | 🟨 | Neville Nwankwo · Telstar 1963 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Danny Bakker · Telstar 1963 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Gjivai Zechiël · FC Utrecht |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dani de Wit · FC Utrecht |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dani de Wit · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jesper Karlsson · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Telstar 1963 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days | 953.00 | 649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 3.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1618.45 | 1490.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 37.23 | 31.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.77 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.30 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.31 |
| solidity v1 | 0.68 | -1.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.14 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.91 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.72 |