← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Apr 5, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Oostrom
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 64% | 61% | 1.48 | fair |
| Heracles win | 18% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −1.25 | 51% | 1.85 |
| SC Heerenveen −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 65% | 1.40 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 35% | 2.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Mario Engels · Heracles |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jacob Trenskow · SC Heerenveen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mimeirhel Benita · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lasse Selvåg Nordås · SC Heerenveen |
| 47' | ⚽ (og) | Remko Pasveer · SC Heerenveen |
| 49' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · Heracles |
| 51' | ⚽ | Maxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 7 |
| 14 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days | 400.00 | 278.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.21 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1576.86 | 1392.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.61 | -16.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | -0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| league points | 41.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 14.05 | 15.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.46 | 0.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.39 |
| solidity v1 | -0.94 | -1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.45 | -1.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 2.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.88 |