← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 4, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 41% | 41% | 2.30 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 34% | 30% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 3.90 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 −0.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| AFC Ajax −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 61% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 39% | 2.70 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Ramiz Zerrouki · FC Twente '65 |
| 32' | ⚽ | Wout Weghorst · AFC Ajax |
| 41' | 🟨 | Oliver Edvardsen · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | 🟨 | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 61' | 🟨 | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 63' | 🟨 | Oscar Gloukh · AFC Ajax |
| 64' | 🟨 | Stav Lemkin · FC Twente '65 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | ⚽ | Bart van Rooij · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 246.00 | 1008.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1697.83 | 1681.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.05 | 18.48 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.87 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| league points | 48.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 13.23 | 14.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | 0.22 | -0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.60 | 24.96 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.17 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.53 |