← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 22, 11:15 AM UTC · ref: M. van den Kerkhof
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| NEC win | 58% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 21% | 21% | 4.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.50 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| NEC −0.75 | 55% | 1.73 |
| SC Heerenveen −0.75 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 67% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand