← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 8, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 51% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.70 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 24% | 21% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam +0.5 | 51% | 1.85 |
| NAC Breda +0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 60% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 40% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 22' | ⚽ | Kamal Sowah · NAC Breda |
| 31' | ⚽ | Luciano Valente · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 39' | ⚽ | Boyd Lucassen · NAC Breda |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jakub Moder · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | André Ayew · NAC Breda |
| 52' | ⚽ | Ayase Ueda · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 62' | 🟨 | Raheem Sterling · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 70' | 🟨 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
| 88' | 🟨 | Anel Ahmedhodžić · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 88' | 🟨 | Tsuyoshi Watanabe |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| 90' | 🟥 | Leo Greiml · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 645.00 |
| 400.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 4.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1386.63 | 1691.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.65 | -7.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.80 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.00 | 50.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| league points | 22.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.86 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.43 | 0.72 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 0.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | — | 26.86 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 1.72 |