← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 7, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 42% | 32% | 2.25 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 33% | 38% | 2.88 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SBV Excelsior +0.25 | 52% | 1.83 |
| SC Heerenveen +0.25 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 41% | 2.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 4 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand