← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 48% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
| Volendam win | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam +0.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| FC Groningen +0.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 55% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 44% | 45% | 2.15 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Stije Resink · FC Groningen |
| 23' | 🟨 | Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson · FC Groningen |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Brandley Kuwas · Volendam |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ozan Kökçü · Volendam |
| 56' | ⚽ | Aurelio Oehlers · Volendam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Younes Taha · FC Groningen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mawouna Amevor · Volendam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Thom van Bergen · FC Groningen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Volendam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 28 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 608.00 | 974.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 5.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1393.74 | 1483.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.17 | -39.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | 0.25 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.25 |