← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Lindhout
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 67% | 67% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −1.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Fortuna Sittard −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 70% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Tjaronn Chery · NEC |
| 21' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
| 27' | ⚽ | Iván Márquez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 54' | 🟨 | Philip Brittijn · Fortuna Sittard |
| 59' | ⚽ | Mohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard |
| 65' | ⚽ | Justin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Édouard Michut · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 423.00 | 1003.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.78 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1653.21 | 1501.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.15 | 4.02 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.60 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| league points | 43.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.78 | -0.53 |
| solidity v1 | 0.02 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.51 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.03 |