← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 38% | 39% | 2.50 | fair |
| Telstar 1963 win | 37% | 34% | 2.55 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda +0 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Telstar 1963 +0 | 49% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · Telstar 1963 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Guus Offerhaus · Telstar 1963 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Rio Hillen · NAC Breda |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda |
| 79' | 🟨 | Pepijn Reulen · NAC Breda |
| 83' | ⚽ | Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp · Telstar 1963 |
| 85' | ⚽ | Patrick Brouwer · Telstar 1963 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Telstar 1963 | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | BUKO Stadion |
| coach days |
| 606.00 |
| 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1459.04 | 1398.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.54 | 20.27 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.76 |
| league points | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -2.02 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.06 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.16 |