β Eredivisie 2025-26 Β· Sat, Feb 21, 08:00 PM UTC Β· ref: J. Manschot
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 53% | 57% | 1.80 | value: +3% |
| NEC win | 25% | 18% | 3.80 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Ajax β0.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| NEC β0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 66% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 34% | 2.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand