← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 05:45 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| PSV win | 76% | 80% | 1.25 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 10% | 7% | 9.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PSV −1.75 | 53% | 1.78 |
| SC Heerenveen −1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 64% | 1.29 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 36% | 3.60 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.