← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Tue, Feb 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. van der Laan
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 39% | 35% | 2.45 | fair |
| NEC win | 35% | 34% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| NEC +0 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Lushendry Edward Martes · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 64' | ⚽ | Bruno Martins Indi · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 65' | 🟨 | Willum Thor Willumsson · NEC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Deveron Fonville · NEC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pelle Clement · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joshua Kitolano · Sparta Rotterdam |
| 73' | ⚽ | Koki Ogawa · NEC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Virgil Misidjan · NEC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sparta Rotterdam | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel |
| coach days | 473.00 | 412.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.26 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1569.74 | 1636.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.51 | 12.91 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 36.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 9.96 | 5.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.65 |
| solidity v1 | 0.42 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 7.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.20 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.72 |