← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 15, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: I. Oostrom
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 58% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −0.75 | 53% | 1.80 |
| PEC Zwolle −0.75 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 63% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
| 16' | ⚽ | Tristan Gooijer · PEC Zwolle |
| 30' | ⚽ | Maxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen |
| 31' | 🟨 | Maxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lasse Selvåg Nordås · SC Heerenveen |
| 63' | ⚽ | Ringo Meerveld · SC Heerenveen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Eser Gürbüz · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| coach days |
| 351.00 |
| 229.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1537.07 | 1506.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.12 | 16.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.64 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.76 |
| league points | 28.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.82 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.01 |
| solidity v1 | -1.09 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.56 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.19 | 1.28 |