← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC win | 57% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 3.90 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NEC −0.75 | 51% | 1.85 |
| FC Utrecht −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 57% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 42% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ángel Alarcón · FC Utrecht |
| 25' | 🟨 | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Matisse Didden · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | 🟨 | Philippe Sandler · NEC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Gjivai Zechiël · FC Utrecht |
| 49' | ⚽ | Yoann Cathline · FC Utrecht |
| 59' | ⚽ | Darko Nejašmić · NEC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jesper Karlsson · FC Utrecht |
| 89' | 🟨 | Ahmetcan Kaplan · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 24 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NEC | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.57 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Goffertstadion |
| coach days | 406.00 | 894.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.56 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1657.87 | 1554.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.74 | -43.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.68 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| league points | 41.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 4.19 | 3.36 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -0.00 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.96 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 1.49 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 1.15 |