← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Manschot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 61% | 59% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.50 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 18% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen −1 | 50% | 1.90 |
| FC Twente '65 −1 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 63% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 37% | 2.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Ramiz Zerrouki · FC Twente '65 |
| 30' | ⚽ | Mats Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Marcus Linday · SC Heerenveen |
| 54' | ⚽ | Daan Rots · FC Twente '65 |
| 63' | ⚽ | Kristian Hlynsson · FC Twente '65 |
| 75' | 🟨 | Oliver Braude · SC Heerenveen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Sam Lammers · FC Twente '65 |
| 86' | 🟨 | Maxence Rivera · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 29 | Shots | 7 |
| 14 | On target | 0 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Twente '65 | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | De Grolsch Veste |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 952.00 | 343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1638.35 | 1530.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.90 | 21.11 |
| eye test v1 | 1.48 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.59 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.14 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.55 |
| solidity v1 | 0.95 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.40 |