← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 6, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 51% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 23% | 24% | 4.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda −0.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| SBV Excelsior −0.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟥 | Rio Hillen · NAC Breda |
| 18' | ⚽ | Emil Hansson · SBV Excelsior |
| 31' | ⚽ | Irakli Yegoian · SBV Excelsior |
| 52' | 🟨 | Arthur Zagre · SBV Excelsior |
| 63' | 🟨 | Mohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda |
| 68' | 🟨 | Miliano Jonathans · SBV Excelsior |
| 89' | 🟨 | Clint Leemans · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 615.00 | 615.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1404.54 | 1447.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.86 | 17.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.63 | 0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.66 | 24.34 |
| state index | -0.89 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.22 |