← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vos
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 48% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
| Volendam win | 26% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam +0.5 | 52% | 1.83 |
| Go Ahead Eagles +0.5 | 48% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Victor Kaj Edvardsen · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 13' | 🟨 | Alfons Sampsted · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 15' | 🟨 | Joel Ideho · Volendam |
| 20' | 🟨 | Alex Plat · Volendam |
| 31' | 🟨 | Evert Linthorst · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 62' | 🟨 | Alfons Sampsted · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 62' | 🟥 | Alfons Sampsted · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 69' | 🟨 | Mawouna Amevor · Volendam |
| 74' | ⚽ | Robert Mühren · Volendam |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Yannick Leliendal · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Finn Stokkers · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thibo Baeten · Go Ahead Eagles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 580.00 | 580.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1365.79 | 1519.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.05 | -2.68 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| league points | 17.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 8.15 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -2.47 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.82 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.44 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.49 | 1.12 |