← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Martens
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 29% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
| Heracles −0.25 | 50% | 1.90 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles |
| 33' | 🟨 | Justin Hubner · Fortuna Sittard |
| 37' | ⚽ | Kaj Sierhuis · Fortuna Sittard |
| 44' | ⚽ | Alec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles |
| 56' | 🟨 | Shawn Adewoye · Fortuna Sittard |
| 58' | 🟨 | Naci Ünüvar · Heracles |
| 60' | 🟨 | Iván Márquez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Walid Ould-Chikh · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Asito Stadium |
| coach days | 215.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 9.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1417.39 | 1497.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.45 | 19.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.63 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 14.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.80 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -0.59 |
| solidity v1 | -1.58 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | -1.31 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.78 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.29 |