← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 78% | 72% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 11% | 7.50 | fair |
| Heracles win | 9% | 16% | 10.00 | value: +63% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles −2 | 51% | 1.85 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −2 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 71% | 1.33 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Leo Sauer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Luka Kulenović · Heracles |
| 32' | 🟨 | Luciano Valente · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 32' | 🟨 | Lequincio Zeefuik · Heracles |
| 35' | ⚽ | Jordan Bos · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ivan Mesík · Heracles |
| 55' | 🟨 | Timon Wellenreuther · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 83' | ⚽ | Anis Hadj Moussa · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 85' | ⚽ | Casper Tengstedt · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Tristan van Gilst · Heracles |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | De Kuip |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 358.00 | 208.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1702.37 | 1421.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.44 | -37.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.64 | 2.56 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 36.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -0.51 |
| solidity v1 | -0.65 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.65 | — |
| state index | 0.21 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.29 | 1.85 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.34 | 0.86 |