← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 03:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Makkelie
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 63% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 16% | 13% | 6.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam −1.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 65% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 13 |
| 12 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand