← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Nagtegaal
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 52% | 59% | 1.83 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.70 | fair |
| Volendam win | 22% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Volendam +0.75 | 55% | 1.73 |
| FC Utrecht +0.75 | 45% | 2.08 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 55% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 45% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Joel Ideho · Volendam |
| 23' | 🟨 | Precious Ugwu · Volendam |
| 28' | 🟨 | Miguel Rodríguez · FC Utrecht |
| 42' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Volendam |
| 49' | ⚽ | Victor Jensen · FC Utrecht |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nick Verschuren · Volendam |
| 83' | 🟨 | Matisse Didden · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robin van Cruijsen · Volendam |
| 90' | 🟨 | Souffian El Karouani · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Volendam | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kras Stadion |
| coach days | 566.00 | 870.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1353.38 | 1612.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.77 | -23.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.10 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 28.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -2.21 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.17 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.34 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.95 |