← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 18, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: S. van der Eijk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 63% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | 4.50 | fair |
| Heracles win | 16% | 18% | 6.00 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles +1.25 | 54% | 1.75 |
| FC Twente '65 +1.25 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 69% | 1.57 | value: +8% |
| Under | 40% | 31% | 2.35 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Thomas Van den Belt · FC Twente '65 |
| 30' | ⚽ | Thomas Van den Belt · FC Twente '65 |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles |
| 58' | 🟥 | Ramiz Zerrouki · FC Twente '65 |
| 67' | 🟨 | Stav Lemkin · FC Twente '65 |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles |
| 69' | 🟨 | Bart van Rooij · FC Twente '65 |
| 85' | 🟨 | Ricky van Wolfswinkel · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Asito Stadium |
| coach days | 201.00 | 932.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.71 |
| elo | 1429.92 | 1641.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.70 | 18.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | 1.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.56 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.82 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | 13.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 21.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | 1.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.79 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.86 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 2.15 |