← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Blank
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda win | 38% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
| NEC win | 34% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda +0 | 53% | 1.80 |
| NEC +0 | 47% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 63% | 1.80 | value: +13% |
| Under | 47% | 37% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | 🟨 | Charles-Andreas Brym · NAC Breda |
| 10' | ⚽ | Eli Dasa · NEC |
| 17' | ⚽ | Sami Ouaissa · NEC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Moussa Soumano · NAC Breda |
| 55' | ⚽ | Moussa Soumano · NAC Breda |
| 65' | 🟨 | Maximilien Balard · NAC Breda |
| 69' | ⚽ | Dirk Proper · NEC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Boy Kemper · NAC Breda |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dirk Proper · NEC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kodai Sano · NEC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| coach days | 595.00 | 381.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1383.25 | 1623.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.04 | 36.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 1.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 28.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 0.09 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 2.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.32 | 2.14 |