← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 05:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Higler
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 63% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +11% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 17% | 18% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +1.25 | 53% | 1.78 |
| AZ +1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 61% | 1.48 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 39% | 2.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Shola Shoretire · PEC Zwolle |
| 23' | 🟨 | Alexandre Penetra · AZ |
| 26' | ⚽ | Anselmo Garcia McNulty · PEC Zwolle |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mateo Chávez · AZ |
| 74' | ⚽ | Peer Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shola Shoretire · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Shola Shoretire · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
| coach days |
| 200.00 |
| 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1495.18 | 1668.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.72 | -8.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 1.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -11.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | 1.61 |
| solidity v1 | -1.47 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | — | 27.94 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 0.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 2.46 |