← Eredivisie 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Gozubuyuk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 57% | 62% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
| Go Ahead Eagles win | 19% | 15% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Go Ahead Eagles −1 | 54% | 1.75 |
| AFC Ajax −1 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 37% | 2.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax |
| 19' | 🟨 | Kenzo Goudmijn · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 39' | 🟨 | Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 53' | ⚽ | Thibo Baeten · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 63' | 🟨 | Joris Kramer · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 66' | ⚽ | Milan Smit · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 72' | 🟨 | Evert Linthorst · Go Ahead Eagles |
| 77' | 🟨 | Anton Gaaei · AFC Ajax |
| 78' | 🟨 | Youri Regeer · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 169.00 |
| 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1697.16 | 1517.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 45.17 | -10.91 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 51.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | -0.46 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.33 | — |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 2.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.98 |